The latest hot-button threats to housing market stability—foreign investors, mortgage fraud and over-leveraged buyers—have no comprehensive statistical support, says a report from Fortress Real Developments.

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“No government agency or private entity publishes data on international home buyers or their source of funds,” says Ben Myers, senior vice-president of Market Research and Analytics at Fortress. “It is impossible to fully assess the impact of foreign buyers, inappropriate mortgage activity, or the extent to which Canadians are responsible borrowers based on the currently available data. With the limited information out there, and our own survey research, we feel the fears of a major house price correction are overblown.”

Report findings include:

Foreign buyers – mortgage professionals surveyed by Fortress indicated that approximately 8% of their clients were foreign buyers or recent immigrants; 25% of respondents supported a ban on foreign buyers as a way to prevent a housing correction in Canada.

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Mortgage fraud – 38% of mortgage brokers and agents are very concerned or somewhat concerned about mortgage fraud in Canada. Based on our survey results, over two-thirds of mortgage fraud is either occupancy fraud or fraud for shelter.

Over-leverage – More than half of the mortgage professionals surveyed believe their clients purchased a home that fit their budget, while 23% believed their clients were being conservative, and 11% felt their clients were very risk averse. Only 17% of mortgage holders are believed to be stretching their budget (8%) or over leveraged (9%).

New home price expectations – based on a poll conducted on BuzzBuzzHome.com, 43% of respondents believe new home prices in Toronto will increase by 3% to 7% in 2016. Last year, half of poll respondents called for new home price growth of 0% to 3%; according to RealNet Canada Inc., new low-rise house prices increased 18% in 2015. For Calgary, 52% of survey respondents expect new home prices to decline by 5% or more, compared to 44% last year. CMHC reported that new single-detached house prices in Calgary actually increased 17% in 2015.

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