Canada leads the pack of the magnificent G-7 riding high a robust financial system, low debt and immigration, according to a new report CIBC World Markets Inc.

The report says strong commodity demand, comparatively low government and corporate debt along with a multi-cultural society spell Canada’s economic prospects will outshine those of the G-7 nations for the best part of the next decade.

“Canada’s resource endowments, resilient financial system and favourable demographics relative to other G-7 nations make it an economic contender looking out over the next five to 10 years,” says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC. “Another notable positive is in the healthier state of public and corporate sector balance sheets.”

He says although these factors don’t guarantee national success, they do in the short term place Canada on a firmer footing than its competitors to deal with the challenges of the upcoming teen years.

“Where economic growth goes, corporate earnings, dividends and other rewards for investors are likely to follow,” says Shenfeld.

The report notes economic rebounds from recessions linked to financial crises face greater headwinds than typical up-cycles. It shows countries that have higher indebtedness typically have slower rates of real per capita growth in the five years following the recession.

In light of that, the research says, Canada is well positioned to outpace the typical major industrialized economy in the next few years, having less gross debt, and much less net debt, than most other nations.

Shenfeld says although an earlier rate hike cycle could veil such a growth differential in 2010-11, dealing with a much lighter burden from fiscal restraint will give Canada a longer-term advantage.

Canada’s current federal deficit of 3% of GDP is dwarfed by double-digit deficit-to-GDP ratios for national governments in the U.S. and the U.K.

“That doesn’t mean that Canada won’t see a huge fiscal drag in 2011 – we estimate that the swing from stimulus to restraint represents a two per cent of GDP headwind in that year,” says Shenfeld. “But thereafter, the pain will be much lighter here than elsewhere.”

Canada’s economic growth will be driven by medium-term trends in population and productivity, he adds saying the growth of Canada’s economically active multi-cultural population will outpace that of the U.S. or Europe.

Better business ties and improved bilateral trade is one of the byproducts of immigration. It has considerably improved Canada’s presence in some of the world’s faster growing markets such as South Asia and East Asia.

Bilateral trade, says Shenfeld, tends to be enhanced between countries in response to the movement of people from one to the other. “Business and cultural ties to the home country can facilitate the movement of goods, a trend that appears evident in the Canadian data.”

He notes that corporate Canada is carrying less debt than its U.S. counterpart and this will allow it to invest more capital in productivity-enhancing capital equipment to boots its output in the coming years.

(05/27/10)