More than half of the CFA Institute’s U.S. members expect the results of the presidential election to benefit business at investment management firms over the next 12 months, with only 13% expecting a negative impact.
The CFA Institute conducted a survey of its U.S. member base (more than 3,800 professionals participated) to identify their views on the impact of the U.S. presidential election. It also asked members about what they expect for client portfolios and the value of the U.S. dollar.
Overall, 49% say the impact of the election on client portfolios on a one-year basis will be positive or very positive, and 21% anticipate minimal to no impact. One reason is 62% anticipate a moderate or sharp increase in U.S. equities, while 85% anticipate a moderate or sharp increase in bond yields.
Further, 38% expect the value of the greenback to appreciate by less than 10%, with 27% expecting there to be little change and 25% expecting it to decrease by 10% or less.
According to CFA Institute members, sectors that will see a positive impact as a result of the election are financials (80%), energy (72%) and industrials (65%). On the flip side, utilities (38%), real estate (32%) and information technology (32%) will be negatively affected.
But, 53% of respondents don’t expect to restructure their portfolios over the next year.
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